The projected emissions levels in 2050 indicator captures whether countries are on track to reach zero emissions of four greenhouse gases by 2050. These greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, fluorinated gases, and nitrous oxide. We calculate the average rate of increase or decrease in emissions over ten years (2010 – 2019) and extrapolate this trend to 2050, projecting the level of emissions in that same year. Extrapolation is an appropriate way to gauge which countries have begun adequately reducing emissions and highlight which countries are not on track to meet the 2050 climate target. Projected 2050 emissions equal to or below zero receive the maximum score.
Projected GHG Emissions in 2050
| Country | Rank | EPI Score | 10-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botswana | 1 | 100.00 | 60.10 |
| Denmark | 1 | 100.00 | 56.80 |
| United Kingdom | 1 | 100.00 | 83.50 |
| Namibia | 1 | 100.00 | 55.60 |
| Dominica | 5 | 99.20 | 7.60 |
| Kiribati | 6 | 99.00 | -1.00 |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 7 | 96.30 | 1.90 |
| Barbados | 8 | 95.50 | 25.80 |
| Marshall Islands | 9 | 93.80 | -4.10 |
| Grenada | 10 | 90.90 | 1.60 |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 11 | 90.00 | 0.60 |
| Micronesia | 12 | 89.80 | -10.20 |
| Saint Lucia | 13 | 88.50 | -3.70 |
| Finland | 14 | 88.40 | 58.80 |
| Tonga | 15 | 87.00 | -8.00 |
| Solomon Islands | 16 | 85.20 | 2.50 |
| Seychelles | 17 | 83.80 | -13.70 |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 18 | 83.50 | 1.30 |
| Malta | 19 | 82.80 | 16.90 |
| Vanuatu | 20 | 80.50 | 1.00 |
| Samoa | 21 | 80.10 | -8.80 |
| Cabo Verde | 22 | 77.40 | 3.20 |
| Eswatini | 23 | 76.50 | 2.30 |
| Comoros | 24 | 76.40 | -5.40 |
| Bahamas | 25 | 75.80 | 8.20 |
| Djibouti | 26 | 74.90 | 2.90 |
| Belize | 27 | 72.40 | -5.10 |
| Gambia | 28 | 67.40 | 5.10 |
| Maldives | 29 | 65.20 | -5.20 |
| North Macedonia | 30 | 65.00 | -13.80 |
| Luxembourg | 31 | 63.80 | 14.50 |
| Sweden | 31 | 63.80 | 32.60 |
| Lesotho | 33 | 63.50 | 2.10 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 34 | 63.40 | -3.50 |
| Iceland | 35 | 62.40 | 5.20 |
| Suriname | 36 | 61.80 | -1.40 |
| Bhutan | 37 | 61.40 | -6.30 |
| Fiji | 38 | 60.10 | -12.30 |
| Slovenia | 39 | 57.90 | 12.60 |
| Cyprus | 40 | 57.50 | 5.90 |
| Mauritius | 41 | 57.20 | 0.20 |
| Montenegro | 42 | 56.50 | -5.70 |
| Gabon | 43 | 56.20 | -43.80 |
| Guyana | 44 | 56.00 | -8.00 |
| Liberia | 45 | 55.90 | -4.30 |
| Eritrea | 46 | 55.30 | -3.70 |
| Jamaica | 47 | 55.10 | -19.50 |
| Timor-Leste | 48 | 55.00 | 5.90 |
| Albania | 49 | 53.90 | -3.00 |
| Sierra Leone | 50 | 52.90 | 0.10 |
| Burundi | 51 | 52.70 | -4.10 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 52 | 52.60 | 13.50 |
| Rwanda | 52 | 52.60 | 0.30 |
| Latvia | 54 | 52.50 | 7.50 |
| Moldova | 55 | 51.20 | -5.40 |
| El Salvador | 56 | 50.00 | -0.70 |
| Croatia | 57 | 49.90 | 9.70 |
| Central African Republic | 58 | 49.70 | 4.60 |
| Estonia | 59 | 47.90 | 6.60 |
| Armenia | 60 | 47.50 | -2.20 |
| Togo | 60 | 47.50 | -2.60 |
| Cuba | 62 | 46.70 | 14.40 |
| Republic of Congo | 63 | 46.10 | 8.00 |
| Afghanistan | 64 | 45.30 | 16.00 |
| Brunei Darussalam | 65 | 44.70 | 4.70 |
| Switzerland | 66 | 44.50 | 7.70 |
| Haiti | 67 | 44.00 | 0.80 |
| Panama | 68 | 43.50 | -1.00 |
| Costa Rica | 69 | 43.40 | -2.70 |
| Georgia | 70 | 43.20 | -1.00 |
| Mauritania | 70 | 43.20 | -6.00 |
| Malawi | 72 | 42.40 | -5.20 |
| Tunisia | 73 | 41.20 | 9.10 |
| Zimbabwe | 74 | 40.80 | -5.00 |
| Benin | 75 | 40.70 | -3.20 |
| Slovakia | 76 | 40.60 | 0.90 |
| Nicaragua | 77 | 40.30 | -6.10 |
| Jordan | 78 | 40.10 | 4.00 |
| Lebanon | 79 | 39.90 | -1.00 |
| Lithuania | 79 | 39.90 | -0.30 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 81 | 39.50 | 6.20 |
| Honduras | 82 | 39.10 | -1.40 |
| Ukraine | 82 | 39.10 | 16.90 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 84 | 39.00 | -5.60 |
| Madagascar | 85 | 38.70 | 3.10 |
| Tajikistan | 86 | 38.50 | -7.80 |
| Singapore | 87 | 38.20 | 15.00 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 88 | 37.70 | 18.50 |
| Senegal | 89 | 37.60 | -3.00 |
| Bulgaria | 90 | 36.90 | 1.10 |
| Guinea | 91 | 35.00 | -3.40 |
| Uruguay | 91 | 35.00 | 1.70 |
| Papua New Guinea | 93 | 34.90 | -11.80 |
| Burkina Faso | 94 | 34.40 | -0.20 |
| Greece | 95 | 33.90 | 4.00 |
| Cote d'Ivoire | 96 | 33.80 | -11.60 |
| Zambia | 97 | 33.70 | -4.30 |
| Cameroon | 98 | 33.40 | -5.90 |
| Dominican Republic | 99 | 33.10 | -4.50 |
| Paraguay | 99 | 33.10 | -1.50 |
| Ireland | 101 | 32.90 | -4.80 |
| Hungary | 102 | 31.80 | -8.30 |
| Austria | 103 | 31.40 | 8.10 |
| Romania | 104 | 31.20 | -2.40 |
| Bahrain | 105 | 30.90 | 4.60 |
| Sri Lanka | 106 | 30.80 | -7.20 |
| Ecuador | 107 | 30.70 | 4.00 |
| Guatemala | 108 | 30.60 | -5.70 |
| Norway | 109 | 30.10 | 3.70 |
| Niger | 110 | 30.00 | -5.90 |
| Czech Republic | 111 | 29.80 | 2.90 |
| Uganda | 111 | 29.80 | 0.70 |
| Mali | 113 | 29.70 | -3.60 |
| Ghana | 114 | 29.60 | -9.90 |
| Azerbaijan | 115 | 28.90 | -1.20 |
| Cambodia | 116 | 28.60 | -4.70 |
| Nepal | 117 | 28.00 | -7.30 |
| Mozambique | 118 | 27.80 | -9.20 |
| New Zealand | 119 | 27.60 | -3.90 |
| Serbia | 120 | 27.50 | -0.10 |
| Belgium | 121 | 27.20 | 1.60 |
| Israel | 122 | 27.10 | 1.00 |
| Angola | 123 | 26.40 | -0.10 |
| Netherlands | 124 | 26.30 | 6.70 |
| Dem. Rep. Congo | 125 | 25.40 | -4.80 |
| Laos | 126 | 25.30 | -18.40 |
| Belarus | 127 | 24.90 | 0.80 |
| Kenya | 128 | 23.30 | 1.80 |
| Portugal | 129 | 23.20 | -10.80 |
| Tanzania | 130 | 23.10 | -2.10 |
| Chile | 131 | 22.70 | 0.90 |
| Italy | 132 | 22.60 | 9.60 |
| Venezuela | 133 | 22.30 | 3.90 |
| Peru | 134 | 22.00 | -0.40 |
| Morocco | 135 | 21.90 | -0.30 |
| Sudan | 136 | 20.90 | -1.30 |
| Chad | 137 | 20.80 | -6.00 |
| Kuwait | 138 | 19.30 | 2.40 |
| Bolivia | 139 | 19.20 | 0.50 |
| Uzbekistan | 140 | 18.80 | -4.50 |
| Oman | 140 | 18.80 | -2.90 |
| Mongolia | 142 | 18.10 | -10.30 |
| Turkmenistan | 143 | 17.60 | -4.50 |
| Spain | 144 | 16.60 | 2.30 |
| France | 145 | 16.30 | 4.70 |
| Myanmar | 146 | 15.80 | -4.50 |
| Colombia | 147 | 14.80 | -0.70 |
| Ethiopia | 147 | 14.80 | -1.00 |
| Australia | 149 | 13.60 | 6.50 |
| Taiwan | 150 | 13.40 | 2.90 |
| United Arab Emirates | 151 | 13.30 | 3.80 |
| Qatar | 152 | 13.10 | -0.80 |
| Argentina | 153 | 11.70 | 4.30 |
| Bangladesh | 154 | 11.40 | -3.30 |
| Kazakhstan | 155 | 10.20 | 6.70 |
| Poland | 156 | 9.90 | -0.70 |
| Thailand | 157 | 9.50 | 4.90 |
| Germany | 158 | 9.10 | 0.20 |
| Algeria | 159 | 8.60 | -5.40 |
| Nigeria | 160 | 8.50 | -12.20 |
| Philippines | 160 | 8.50 | -8.70 |
| Egypt | 162 | 8.20 | 2.60 |
| South Africa | 163 | 7.90 | 7.90 |
| Malaysia | 164 | 7.40 | -0.20 |
| Mexico | 165 | 5.30 | 5.30 |
| Viet Nam | 166 | 2.50 | -4.60 |
| South Korea | 167 | 1.70 | -0.20 |
| Iraq | 168 | 0.70 | -16.40 |
| Saudi Arabia | 169 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Turkey | 170 | 0.10 | -2.70 |
| Canada | 171 | 0.0 | -4.60 |
| Brazil | 171 | 0.0 | NA |
| China | 171 | 0.0 | NA |
| Indonesia | 171 | 0.0 | NA |
| India | 171 | 0.0 | NA |
| Iran | 171 | 0.0 | NA |
| Japan | 171 | 0.0 | NA |
| Pakistan | 171 | 0.0 | -4.50 |
| Russia | 171 | 0.0 | NA |
| United States of America | 171 | 0.0 | NA |