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Projected emissions in 2050

The projected emissions levels in 2050 indicator captures whether countries are on track to reach zero emissions of four greenhouse gases by 2050. These greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, fluorinated gases, and nitrous oxide. We calculate the average rate of increase or decrease in emissions over ten years (2013 – 2022) and extrapolate this trend to 2050, projecting the level of emissions in that same year. Extrapolation is an appropriate way to gauge which countries have begun adequately reducing emissions and highlight which countries are not on track to meet the 2050 climate target. Projected 2050 emissions equal to or below zero receive the maximum score.

country rank Score 10y ∆
Estonia 1 100.0 75.0
Finland 1 100.0 70.9
Greece 1 100.0 82.1
Timor-Leste 1 100.0 63.4
United Kingdom 1 100.0 73.7
Kiribati 6 62.8 -1.8
Marshall Islands 7 61.2 1.1
Dominica 8 60.9 1.6
Vanuatu 9 59.0 10.7
Micronesia 10 58.9 -0.4
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 11 58.3 1.0
Malta 12 57.7 13.6
Sao Tome and Principe 13 57.0 0.3
Barbados 14 55.2 9.3
Samoa 15 55.1 2.7
Solomon Islands 16 54.4 3.8
Tonga 17 53.8 -7.3
Saint Lucia 18 52.5 2.4
Antigua and Barbuda 19 51.6 -0.6
Grenada 20 50.5 -2.1
Cabo Verde 21 49.1 -1.0
Luxembourg 22 47.5 9.1
Seychelles 23 47.2 -5.4
Fiji 24 45.3 -1.4
Comoros 25 44.6 -3.8
Djibouti 26 44.4 0.0
Belize 27 43.8 -1.6
Bahamas 28 42.9 1.7
Eswatini 28 42.9 -4.8
Jamaica 30 41.5 5.4
Denmark 31 40.5 -59.5
Gambia 32 40.1 0.7
Maldives 33 40.0 -0.9
Guinea-Bissau 34 39.6 0.3
Albania 35 39.5 8.4
Bhutan 36 39.3 0.4
Montenegro 36 39.3 -1.8
Iceland 38 38.8 1.0
Lesotho 39 38.2 1.8
Suriname 40 37.2 3.9
Liberia 41 36.0 0.4
Equatorial Guinea 42 35.6 8.5
Mauritius 43 35.2 1.7
Eritrea 44 34.3 -0.3
Latvia 45 33.7 0.5
Cuba 46 33.6 12.8
Slovenia 46 33.6 -1.7
Cyprus 48 33.4 -2.8
Sierra Leone 48 33.4 2.3
Guyana 50 32.8 -2.4
Moldova 50 32.8 -2.8
North Macedonia 52 32.5 -4.0
Gabon 53 32.3 -0.3
Zimbabwe 54 32.2 8.6
Burundi 55 31.6 -0.4
Armenia 56 31.3 -0.9
El Salvador 57 30.5 -6.1
Haiti 58 30.2 2.5
Rwanda 58 30.2 -1.8
Costa Rica 60 29.7 0.7
Croatia 61 28.9 0.2
Lithuania 62 28.8 0.3
Togo 63 28.4 -3.2
Central African Republic 64 28.2 -3.4
Kyrgyzstan 65 28.0 4.5
Papua New Guinea 66 27.9 -5.5
Georgia 67 27.7 0.7
Switzerland 68 27.6 2.7
Namibia 69 27.0 -1.2
Panama 69 27.0 1.9
Bosnia and Herzegovina 71 26.9 3.7
Brunei Darussalam 72 26.8 -1.8
Sweden 73 25.7 -3.7
Mauritania 74 25.5 -2.6
Nicaragua 74 25.5 -0.5
Honduras 76 24.8 0.0
Portugal 77 24.7 0.4
Jordan 78 24.3 3.1
Ukraine 79 23.9 14.3
Slovakia 80 23.6 -8.0
Sri Lanka 81 23.4 1.6
Benin 82 23.3 -3.6
Trinidad and Tobago 83 23.2 5.5
Lebanon 84 23.1 2.8
Republic of Congo 85 23.0 -3.9
Botswana 86 22.9 -3.0
Malawi 86 22.9 -4.8
Afghanistan 88 22.6 4.4
Cote d'Ivoire 89 22.3 -0.7
Madagascar 90 22.2 -0.3
Tajikistan 90 22.2 -8.9
Norway 92 21.7 1.2
Senegal 93 21.6 -1.4
Zambia 93 21.6 0.2
Bulgaria 95 21.4 -3.8
Uruguay 95 21.4 -0.7
Ecuador 97 20.9 5.4
Dominican Republic 98 20.7 -0.5
Austria 99 20.6 -3.8
Cameroon 99 20.6 -1.9
Guinea 99 20.6 -1.2
Ireland 102 20.5 -9.6
Serbia 102 20.5 -79.5
Angola 104 20.4 5.5
Mozambique 104 20.4 2.0
Paraguay 106 20.2 1.2
Tunisia 107 20.1 0.0
Belgium 108 19.8 -4.8
New Zealand 109 19.6 0.9
Burkina Faso 110 19.5 -2.0
Hungary 111 19.4 -80.6
Guatemala 112 19.0 -2.9
Bolivia 113 18.8 1.9
Uganda 114 18.7 1.4
Czech Republic 115 18.6 -2.7
Israel 115 18.6 2.1
Netherlands 115 18.6 3.2
Singapore 118 18.1 1.7
Nepal 119 17.5 -1.9
Niger 119 17.5 -2.9
Belarus 121 17.1 4.5
Romania 121 17.1 -12.9
Bahrain 123 17.0 0.8
Azerbaijan 124 16.9 -2.0
Ghana 125 16.6 -2.3
Laos 126 16.5 -8.0
Dem. Rep. Congo 127 16.4 0.1
Cambodia 128 16.3 -5.1
Mali 128 16.3 -3.8
Germany 130 14.9 11.5
Turkmenistan 131 14.7 2.5
Myanmar 132 14.4 0.6
Oman 133 14.2 2.6
Venezuela 133 14.2 7.0
Mongolia 135 14.0 2.5
Peru 135 14.0 1.0
Sudan 137 13.9 -0.3
Tanzania 138 13.6 -0.4
Chile 139 13.5 0.5
Morocco 140 12.9 -1.2
France 141 12.8 0.6
Spain 142 12.5 -2.1
Chad 143 11.8 -3.4
Kenya 143 11.8 -2.2
Qatar 145 10.2 4.1
Japan 146 10.0 10.0
Uzbekistan 146 10.0 -3.8
Kuwait 148 9.7 -3.9
Colombia 149 9.3 0.7
Italy 150 9.2 1.2
Taiwan 151 8.7 -2.5
Ethiopia 152 8.3 -1.0
Kazakhstan 153 8.1 3.6
Poland 154 7.7 -0.9
South Africa 155 7.2 4.0
Algeria 156 6.9 -0.4
Bangladesh 157 6.8 -1.4
Argentina 158 6.6 -1.1
United Arab Emirates 159 6.5 2.9
Nigeria 160 6.3 1.4
Thailand 161 6.0 2.9
Australia 162 5.9 3.1
Philippines 162 5.9 -2.4
Egypt 164 5.5 -0.2
Malaysia 165 5.1 0.3
Canada 166 4.1 1.2
Iraq 166 4.1 -0.3
South Korea 166 4.1 4.1
Mexico 169 1.5 0.7
Pakistan 170 1.0 -3.2
Turkiye 171 0.7 -0.2
Brazil 172 0.0 0.0
China 172 0.0 0.0
India 172 0.0 0.0
Indonesia 172 0.0 0.0
Iran 172 0.0 0.0
Russia 172 0.0 0.0
Saudi Arabia 172 0.0 0.0
United States of America 172 0.0 0.0
Viet Nam 172 0.0 -4.1